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Aviation enterprises downturn or continuation

Date:2011-07-28

  Substantial increase in capacity but demand is relatively calm, so that shipping companies and ship owners are increasingly depressed. Originally, they expected after the financial crisis of the shipping market will gradually recover, but now, the situation is much worse than imagined.

  July 20, the BDI (dry bulk shipping market index) closed at 1353 points, down 14 points and the previous day, this is the BDI index tenth consecutive trading day down, and in the preceding months , BDI index has been in the low volatility.

  Two years ago in 2009, experienced a financial crisis, BDI index had substantial growth stimulus ore imports in China, the strong rebound from the beginning of 1400, then in November 4600 had reached the point, when many shipping companies have not thought of, Today, BDI index again to return to the previous rally.

  "Dry bulk shipping market downturn lasted longer, the end of 2008 has exceeded the crisis of that ocean." Shipping expert long-term concern of the shipping market, Chen Yi on the "First Financial Daily" correspondent pointed out that due to the uncertainty of demand and excess capacity become more serious, the market has yet signs of bottoming out, when the end of this round of adjustment can become the focus of immediate concern to the maritime sector.

  Excess capacity

  The shipping market downturn, the charter market performed dismally can be seen. Wherein, in the dry bulk shipping market accounted for Capesize daily rent dominant in the first half as high as hundreds of days to less than $ 10,000, compared with the 50 days of the financial crisis, the downturn was nearly double the time .

  Capesize vessels is mainly used to transport iron ore, as optimistic about the demand for iron ore transportation, the ship is also shipping companies ordered more vessels, for this reason, the level of rents capesize, and has even less with traffic Panamax ship has become a serious upside down. Daily rent is generally 200,000 to 300,000 tons Capesize at 30,000 to 40,000 dollars, 70,000 tons daily rent Panamax $ 20,000, and now daily rent Panamax only $ 13,000, capesize the daily rent is lower.

  "Four trillion investment in 2009 saved the country's shipping market, shipping industry mistakenly thought that China and the global economic growth rate will continue for the time, the ship in large quantities, is now gradually delivery capacity, while the economy has entered a smooth phase, capacity will appear excess. "Chen Yi analysis.

  2008,2009 two years, there have been indeed historic peak shipbuilding orders, the order size of more than 80% of the fleet at that time, and these orders have recently completed, ushered in the new period of high capacity. As of June 1, the world's dry bulk fleet size (greater than tons more than the ship) has reached 570 million dwt, representing a 23% increase by the end of 2009, there are 250 million tons orders will be gradually completed in the next two years .

  "BDI index continued to decline this year is the main reason for the delivery of a new ship force more shipping capacity supply is greater than demand." China Shipping Development Wangkang Tian told reporters that the chief accountant.

  Dry bulk freight rates will remain low for

  In accordance with general industry cost estimates, many shipping companies in the BDI fell to 2500 points below will be a loss, therefore, some of the international ocean transport vessels, began to shift to the coast were internal transport.

  "Coastal shipping is now basically in the balance of profit and loss line, if this is also the continuation of the transfer capacity will suffer losses." Chen Yi pointed out that the summer peaks, this time will be the peak of the coastal coal transportation, but if the transfer capacity the trend continues, coastal shipping may also occur not busy season, tariffs fell anomaly.

  It is understood that operate at a loss, some owners have taken measures to slow new capacity to serve, including delaying the new boat into the water, reducing orders, etc., but the pressure of excess capacity will continue throughout the second half. Chen Yi is expected to be offshore market may pick up until 2013, due to excess capacity is too serious, it's new ship orders is 44% of the entire fleet.

  Demand also is still not optimistic. In the first half of this year, the growth rate of global sea trade ore, coal, grain and other bulk goods of less than 5% and a capacity increase of goods is far greater than the growth rate. Southwest Securities analyst Li Hui expects the second half of the amount of 12.24 million tons of steel needed affordable housing to start this year's steel output has a stimulating effect, but has little effect on the real estate investment will decline slightly, the steel industry boom is down slightly state, ore prices will continue to rise slightly, but subject to tight control policy, little upside, which affect shipping needs.

  BOCI Du Jianping shipping analyst also pointed out that China's iron ore port stocks high and the lack of impact of downstream demand, China's iron ore imports weakened, while the rainy season in India also makes iron ore exports decreased. Make a lot of capacity to deliver tariffs further pressure, while CVRD-made VLOCs be delivered also makes the market situation deteriorate further. Expected future excess capacity in the repression, dry bulk freight rates will continue to run low.

TypeInfo: Industry News